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LIVE · VOL. I, NO. 32

The Intangibles Index

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A wins predictor for the analytically overconfident. Because Wins Above Replacement cannot measure what you lose when you trade or give away your clubhouse.

Subject: 2026 New York Mets · Live Readout
Record
47 – 66
Current Streak
L 3
Payroll
$381M
PECOTA Projection
89wins
Current 162-Game Pace
67wins
PECOTABaseball Prospectus's preseason win forecast (Nate Silver's model)
162-Game Pacetoday's win % extrapolated across a full season
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Preset Archetypes — click to load
1 / 4
Output · The Prediction
Intangibles-Adjusted
72
full model · quant + the α correction
Quant-Only
89
if intangibles = 0 · the preseason spreadsheet
2026 Mets Current Pace
67
through 113 games · 47-66
The spreadsheet misses by 22 wins. With the intangibles (α) correction, the full model misses by just 5.
Cost Efficiency Audit · What each win actually costs
Cost Per Win
$5.69M
payroll ÷ wins
Historical Percentile
BOTTOM 1% Historically inefficient
Efficiency Spectrum
2026 METS LEAGUE AVG 2002 A'S
Tune The Model

Change the prediction above by adjusting the model below, including the intangibles. Move the quantifiable WAR inputs on the left, or the harder-to-measure clubhouse factors on the right, and watch the forecast shift.

The Quant Side

β · fWAR

What the projection systems see. Numbers have opinions about these.

fWAR · Fangraphs Wins Above Replacement Fangraphs' version of the all-in-one stat that estimates how many wins a player adds versus a freely-available "replacement" player (think Triple-A call-up). A good regular sits around 2.0. An All-Star clears 4.0. An MVP season goes 7+. Sum every player on the roster and you have the team's total quantifiable value.

The Intangibles Side

α · Intangibles

What the projection systems don't see. What David Stearns gave away.

August 3, 2026 · The Fire Sale seven trades, all prospects back
Freddy Peralta → TB
Clay Holmes → CHC
Tyrone Taylor → CHC
A.J. Minter → MIN
Brooks Raley → PHI
Luke Weaver → PIT
Huascar Brazobán → CWS
Ben Rortvedt → LAD
Eight players out in seven trades, the bullpen emptied to the walls, and every one of them returned prospects. The only arm coming back with big league service has thrown two games. Stearns called it a tremendous amount of talent, which is what you say when none of it can help you this year.
The Intangibles Ledger — 2026 Moves, Projected vs On-Pace Snapshot as of August 3, 2026 · Updated periodically

Given Away α · proj → pace

  • Brandon Nimmo CF · TEX
    .270, 11 HR, landed exactly on his number in Texas
    proj 2.9 pace 2.9 0.0
  • Edwin Díaz CL · LAD
    back July 29 from elbow surgery, 100 days gone, a 9.00 ERA waiting
    proj 1.3 pace 0.0 −1.3 ▼
  • Pete Alonso 1B · BAL
    23 HR, 69 RBI, still the only winter move beating its number
    proj 3.6 pace 4.0 +0.4 ▲
  • Starling Marte OF · KC
    one home run all season, the twilight tour is just twilight now
    proj 0.4 pace −0.4 −0.8 ▼
  • Jeff McNeil 2B · ATH
    .251, 4 HR, a batting title winner now worth precisely zero
    proj 2.6 pace 0.0 −2.6 ▼
Given Away proj 10.8 pace 6.5 −4.3 ▼

Acquired β · proj → pace

  • Luis Robert Jr. CF
    off the IL July 20 after three months out, hitting .197 since
    proj 2.1 pace −0.1 −2.2 ▼
  • Freddy Peralta SP · TB
    4.99 ERA in 22 starts, then flipped to Tampa for three prospects
    proj 2.5 pace 1.7 −0.8 ▼
  • Bo Bichette SS
    .254 and a .660 OPS, the Bo-ment never did arrive
    proj 3.8 pace 1.3 −2.5 ▼
  • Devin Williams CL
    4.30 ERA, 16 saves, and the last man standing in the bullpen
    proj 1.1 pace 1.1 0.0
  • Marcus Semien 2B
    back from the hip flexor at the break, still below replacement
    proj 2.8 pace −0.6 −3.4 ▼
  • Jorge Polanco DH
    .131 in 29 games, the worst bat anywhere in this ledger
    proj 2.1 pace −1.9 −4.0 ▼
Acquired proj 14.4 pace 1.5 −12.9 ▼
The Trade: Projected vs Realized acquired minus given away · fWAR
Projected swing +3.6
On pace for −5.0
Through 113 games the Mets are 47-66, twenty and a half back, and as of six o'clock tonight they are officially rebuilding. The winter's moves projected to add 3.6 wins of value over what walked out the door. On pace, the return is now 5.0 wins underwater, the worst reading this ledger has posted all season. Freddy Peralta, signed on to front the rotation, went to Tampa Bay this afternoon for three prospects. Pete Alonso is still the only winter transaction beating its projection, which remains the one fact no spreadsheet in this building wants to hear. Brandon Nimmo and Devin Williams landed precisely on their numbers, and the rest of the ledger is a list of men who did not. Juan Soto is out until September with a calf strain. Add the intangibles (clubhouse, crowd, fan favorite equity) and the swing is uglier still.
E(W) = Wr + β · fWAR + α + ε
Wr · Replacement Floor

A team of freely available talent wins ≈ 48 games.

β · fWAR

The quantifiable part. Your roster's projected Fangraphs Wins Above Replacement.

α · Intangibles

Everything the spreadsheet can't see. Chemistry, leadership, vibes.

ε · Error

Luck. BABIP. The ump. The ball.