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LIVE · VOL. I, NO. 1

The Intangibles Index

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A wins predictor for the analytically overconfident. Because Wins Above Replacement cannot measure what you lose when you trade or give away your clubhouse.

Subject: 2026 New York Mets · Live Readout
Record
7 – 15
Current Streak
L 11
Payroll
$381M
PECOTA Projection
89wins
Current 162-Game Pace
52wins
PECOTABaseball Prospectus's preseason win forecast (Nate Silver's model)
162-Game Pacetoday's win % extrapolated across a full season
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Preset Archetypes — click to load
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Output · The Prediction
Intangibles Prediction
85
expected wins (162-game season)
Quant-Only Prediction
89
if intangibles = 0 (the spreadsheet's answer)
2026 Mets Current Pace
52
through 22 games · 7-15
The spreadsheet is off by 37 wins.
Cost Efficiency Audit · What each win actually costs
Cost Per Win
$7.33M
payroll ÷ wins
Historical Percentile
BOTTOM 1% Historically inefficient
Efficiency Spectrum
2026 METS LEAGUE AVG 2002 A'S
Tune The Model

Change the prediction above by adjusting the model below, including the intangibles. Move the quantifiable WAR inputs on the left, or the harder-to-measure clubhouse factors on the right, and watch the forecast shift.

The Quant Side

β · fWAR

What the projection systems see. Numbers have opinions about these.

fWAR · Fangraphs Wins Above Replacement Fangraphs' version of the all-in-one stat that estimates how many wins a player adds versus a freely-available "replacement" player (think Triple-A call-up). A good regular sits around 2.0. An All-Star clears 4.0. An MVP season goes 7+. Sum every player on the roster and you have the team's total quantifiable value.

The Intangibles Side

α · Intangibles

What the projection systems don't see. What David Stearns gave away.

The Intangibles Ledger — 2026 Offseason Snapshot as of May 7, 2026 · Updated periodically

Given Away α Drained

  • Brandon Nimmo +0.9
    CF · Texas · .297 · 4 HR · 12 RBI · OPS .825 · still raking
  • Edwin Díaz +0.1
    CL · Dodgers · post-surgery, second-half return target
  • Pete Alonso +0.1
    1B · Baltimore · .225 · 7 HR, 21 RBI · OPS .773 · the coin keeps flipping his way
  • Starling Marte +0.0
    OF · Kansas City · .314 in 14 G · OPS .742 · $1M twilight tour, still warm
  • Jeff McNeil −0.2
    2B · Oakland · .311 · 1 HR, 12 RBI · OPS .790 · still hitting in Oakland
Total α Drained +0.9

Acquired β Added

  • Luis Robert Jr. +0.1
    CF · on 10-day IL, lumbar disc · .224 · 2 HR, 8 RBI · OPS .656 · activation pending
  • Freddy Peralta +0.2
    SP · 2-3, 3.12 ERA, 43 K in 43.1 IP, WHIP 1.20 · the actual best Met
  • Bo Bichette −0.1
    3B · .237 · 2 HR, 16 RBI · OPS .585 · the Bo-ment fades further
  • Devin Williams −0.2
    CL · 6.17 ERA in 14 G, 5 SV, WHIP 1.80 · five scoreless in a row, finally
  • Marcus Semien −0.3
    2B · .227 · 2 HR, 13 RBI · OPS .603 · age-36 decline continues quietly
  • Jorge Polanco −0.6
    DH · still on IL with wrist and Achilles, week-to-week · still can't play 1B
Total β Added −0.9
Net Trade Differential acquired minus given away
−1.8 fWAR
The new guys are worth 1.8 wins less than the guys who left. Through 37 games, Stearns's rebuild sits at 14-23. Robert Jr. is still on the IL with a herniated disc, Lindor is still in a boot, Polanco is still week-to-week, and Stearns has now publicly confirmed this is not a manager problem while Mendoza explained that ownership is not happy, the front office is not happy, and the manager is not happy, all together. The net-negative roster underneath it has only gotten more negative. Add in the intangibles (clubhouse, crowd, fan favorite equity) and the model's implied swing is far worse.
E(W) = Wr + β · fWAR + α + ε
Wr · Replacement Floor

A team of freely available talent wins ≈ 48 games.

β · fWAR

The quantifiable part. Your roster's projected Fangraphs Wins Above Replacement.

α · Intangibles

Everything the spreadsheet can't see. Chemistry, leadership, vibes.

ε · Error

Luck. BABIP. The ump. The ball.