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LIVE · VOL. I, NO. 29

The Intangibles Index

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A wins predictor for the analytically overconfident. Because Wins Above Replacement cannot measure what you lose when you trade or give away your clubhouse.

Subject: 2026 New York Mets · Live Readout
Record
34 – 48
Current Streak
L 7
Payroll
$381M
PECOTA Projection
89wins
Current 162-Game Pace
67wins
PECOTABaseball Prospectus's preseason win forecast (Nate Silver's model)
162-Game Pacetoday's win % extrapolated across a full season
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Preset Archetypes — click to load
1 / 4
Output · The Prediction
Intangibles-Adjusted
72
full model · quant + the α correction
Quant-Only
89
if intangibles = 0 · the preseason spreadsheet
2026 Mets Current Pace
67
through 82 games · 34-48
The spreadsheet misses by 22 wins. With the intangibles (α) correction, the full model misses by just 5.
Cost Efficiency Audit · What each win actually costs
Cost Per Win
$5.69M
payroll ÷ wins
Historical Percentile
BOTTOM 1% Historically inefficient
Efficiency Spectrum
2026 METS LEAGUE AVG 2002 A'S
Tune The Model

Change the prediction above by adjusting the model below, including the intangibles. Move the quantifiable WAR inputs on the left, or the harder-to-measure clubhouse factors on the right, and watch the forecast shift.

The Quant Side

β · fWAR

What the projection systems see. Numbers have opinions about these.

fWAR · Fangraphs Wins Above Replacement Fangraphs' version of the all-in-one stat that estimates how many wins a player adds versus a freely-available "replacement" player (think Triple-A call-up). A good regular sits around 2.0. An All-Star clears 4.0. An MVP season goes 7+. Sum every player on the roster and you have the team's total quantifiable value.

The Intangibles Side

α · Intangibles

What the projection systems don't see. What David Stearns gave away.

The Intangibles Ledger — 2026 Moves, Projected vs On-Pace Snapshot as of June 26, 2026 · Updated periodically

Given Away α · proj → pace

  • Brandon Nimmo CF · TEX
    .264, 8 HR, the steady regular quietly producing in Texas
    proj 2.9 pace 2.4 −0.5 ▼
  • Edwin Díaz CL · LAD
    elbow surgery, throwing bullpens, eyeing a late-July returninj
    proj 1.3 pace 0.0 −1.3 ▼
  • Pete Alonso 1B · BAL
    18 HR, .814 OPS, the formulas joke still ages well
    proj 3.6 pace 3.6 0.0
  • Starling Marte OF · KC
    $1M twilight tour, slipping just under projection
    proj 0.4 pace 0.2 −0.2 ▼
  • Jeff McNeil 2B · ATH
    below replacement, the quiet fade continues
    proj 2.6 pace −0.4 −3.0 ▼
Given Away proj 10.8 pace 5.8 −5.0 ▼

Acquired β · proj → pace

  • Luis Robert Jr. CF
    still on the 60-day IL, disc herniation, no timetableinj
    proj 2.1 pace 0.2 −1.9 ▼
  • Freddy Peralta SP
    4.53 ERA but the strikeouts keep him the actual best Met
    proj 2.5 pace 2.4 −0.1 ▼
  • Bo Bichette SS
    the Bo-ment still pending, now full-time at short
    proj 3.8 pace 2.2 −1.6 ▼
  • Devin Williams CL
    4.44 ERA, 11 saves, somehow clearing the low bar
    proj 1.1 pace 1.2 +0.1 ▲
  • Marcus Semien 2B
    .214, the decline resumes, now from the ILinj
    proj 2.8 pace −0.4 −3.2 ▼
  • Jorge Polanco DH
    60-day IL, Achilles bursitis, PRP shot, may not returninj
    proj 2.1 pace −0.6 −2.7 ▼
Acquired proj 14.4 pace 5.0 −9.4 ▼
The Trade: Projected vs Realized acquired minus given away · fWAR
Projected swing +3.6
On pace for −0.8
Through 82 games the Mets are 34-48, last in the NL East and losers of seven straight. The winter's moves projected to add 3.6 wins of value over what walked out the door. On pace, the return is 0.8 wins underwater, a swing of more than four wins from the plan. Of the winter additions, only Devin Williams is on pace to clear his projection, and only barely. The acquired group is on pace 9.4 wins under what ZiPS forecast, cratering nearly twice as hard as the group given away at 5.0 under. Lindor is finally back and hitless in his return, Senga got bombed into the bullpen, Polanco took a PRP shot in his ankle and may not return this season, and Edwin Díaz is rehabbing his elbow out in Los Angeles. The losing streak got the manager fired. Add the intangibles (clubhouse, crowd, fan favorite equity) and the swing is uglier still.
E(W) = Wr + β · fWAR + α + ε
Wr · Replacement Floor

A team of freely available talent wins ≈ 48 games.

β · fWAR

The quantifiable part. Your roster's projected Fangraphs Wins Above Replacement.

α · Intangibles

Everything the spreadsheet can't see. Chemistry, leadership, vibes.

ε · Error

Luck. BABIP. The ump. The ball.